Solo vs Pool:
The Only Honest Comparison
See why 99% of home miners choose pools (and why some still go solo despite the odds). Real calculations, no sugar-coating.
What is Variance?
In statistics, variance measures how spread out numbers are from their average. In Bitcoin mining, it describes the difference between expected and actual outcomes.
The Two Types of Miners
Pool Miners
Accept slightly lower average returns in exchange for predictable, steady income. Like a salary vs. stock options.
Solo Miners
Accept extreme variance for the chance of a massive payout. Like buying lottery tickets instead of investing.
The Lottery Fallacy
Many miners are drawn to solo mining because it feels exciting. Watching the blockchain, hoping to see your block… it's thrilling! But mathematically, it's usually a mistake.
Excitement Bias
We overweight exciting outcomes vs. boring steady gains
Loss Aversion
Small daily losses feel worse than one big loss
Gambler's Fallacy
Believing you're "due" for a win after losses
The Reality Check
With a typical home miner (600 GH/s), your chance of finding a block this year is about 0.01%. That means if 10,000 people like you mine solo, only 1 will find a block. The other 9,999 get nothing. Are you feeling lucky?
When to Go Solo
Despite the math, there are legitimate reasons to solo mine:
Educational Purposes
Learning how mining works by experiencing the full process, including block template construction and submission.
Lottery Entertainment
If you view electricity cost as "lottery ticket price" and find joy in the possibility, not the expectation.
Significant Hash Power
If you have 100+ TH/s (industrial scale), solo becomes more reasonable—but you're still playing the odds.